Flutter vs. React Native in 2025: A Decision Matrix for CTOs
Flutter and React Native still dominate the “one team, two stores” conversation, but 2025 looks different from the 2019 blog posts that crowd Google. Dart has just landed records & macros in Flutter 3.22; React Native is rolling out the New Architecture (Fabric, TurboModules, Codegen) on version 0.74; and both ecosystems are racing to integrate on-device AI.
If you’re deciding which stack will run your product for the next three to five years, you need fresh data—not old Medium hot-takes. This guide benchmarks the frameworks on real hardware, examines roadmap risk, and ends with a download-and-print decision matrix you can take to the board.
Table of Contents
- Executive Snapshot
- Core Rendering Engines
- Performance Benchmarks
- Developer Velocity & Tooling
- Ecosystem & Community Health
- Talent Pool & Hiring Cost
- AI & Native Plugin Support
- Risk Matrix: Governance & Bus Factor
- Decision Matrix Download
- Case-Study Highlights
- Conclusion & Next Steps
1. Executive Snapshot
| Factor | Flutter 3.22 | React Native 0.74 |
|---|---|---|
| Ownership | Meta | |
| Rendering | Impeller (custom) | Fabric → platform views |
| Language | Dart 3 (sound null-safety, macros) | TypeScript / JavaScript |
| Performance | 288 fps micro-bench avg* | 211 fps avg* |
| Build size (hello-world) | 6.8 MB (AAB) | 8.4 MB (AAB) |
| Hot-reload | ~600 ms | ~1.9 s |
| Hiring cost (AU median)** | A$140k | A$152k |
| Corporate backing | 100+ Google FTEs | 50+ Meta FTEs + OSS core |
| Risk | Google product churn history | Meta shifting to web XR? |
* Internal benchmarks on Pixel 8 Pro | **Seek salary data Q1 2025
2. Core Rendering Engines
Flutter → Impeller
- Metal & Vulkan first; Skia fallback.
- Pre-compiled shader bundles kill “first-frame jank.”
- Every frame is a texture, so platform UX (e.g. bottom sheet bounce) has to be rebuilt.
React Native → Fabric
- Uses platform view hierarchies; native scroll physics “feel right” out of the box.
- New Architecture removes the Bridge; JSI calls are ~3× faster .
Take-away: Flutter gives pixel-perfect consistency; React Native gives “native feel” with less effort—choose based on brand guidelines.
3. Performance Benchmarks
| Test | Device | Flutter | React Native |
|---|---|---|---|
| List scroll (1 000 rows) | iPhone 15 Pro | 59 fps | 52 fps |
| Canvas draw (particles) | Pixel 8 Pro | 288 fps | 211 fps |
| Cold start (release) | iOS | 1.1 s | 1.4 s |
| Avg memory (list app) | Android 14 | 148 MB | 162 MB |
Instrumentation: Flutter DevTools, React Dev Perf, systrace. More graphs in our Performance Playbook.
4. Developer Velocity & Tooling
Flutter
dart test --coveragebuilt-in.- VS Code & Android Studio plugins mature.
- Hot-reload is still the gold standard.
React Native
- Expo CLI 3 now supports multi-platform CI configs.
- Chrome DevTools, Flipper, and Hermes heap snapshots for memory leaks.
- TypeScript + ESlint mean zero runtime null errors when done right.
Our internal sprint stats
| Metric | Flutter | React Native |
|---|---|---|
| Story Cycle Time (median) | 2.9 days | 3.4 days |
| CI minutes / build | 7 | 9 |
5. Ecosystem & Community Health
Flutter’s pub.dev crossed 50 000 packages in Jan 2025; React Native has 36 k npm modules with “react-native-*” keywords. However, abandonware rate (no commits >18 mo) is 22 % for Flutter vs 31 % for React Native (our sample of top 500 repos).
Community events: Flutter Forward 2024 (Nairobi), React Native EU 2024 (Wrocław). Both healthy.
6. Talent Pool & Hiring Cost
Australia Seek job ads Q1 2025:
| Role | Ads | Median salary |
|---|---|---|
| Flutter dev | 420 | A$140 k |
| React Native dev | 510 | A$152 k |
| Native iOS | 890 | A$160 k |
| Native Android | 820 | A$158 k |
Flutter salaries closed the gap—good news if you bet on Dart.
7. AI & Native Plugin Support
| Use Case | Flutter | React Native |
|---|---|---|
| On-device LLM (Gemma, Phi-3) | tflite_flutter + dart:ffi wrappers | react-native-llama + JSI |
| Vision OS / spatial | Community plugin in alpha | No stable support |
| Google MLKit | Official firebase_ml_model_runner | Community wrapper |
If AI is roadmap-critical, Flutter’s native C interop wins (no Bridge).
8. Risk Matrix
| Axis | Flutter | React Native |
|---|---|---|
| Corporate churn | Google sunset history (Fuchsia? AngularDart) | Meta’s 2023 cost-cutting but React core is safe |
| Licensing | BSD-style | MIT |
| SDK Roadmap clarity | Public quarterly roadmaps | RFC process but scattered |
| Multi-platform bet | Web still beta | Windows & macOS via RN Skia but community-driven |
9. Decision Matrix Download
Columns: Product Scope, Team Skills, Time-to-Market, Offline Needs, AI Roadmap, Budget. Scoring: 1–5 per column, weighted. We use this in every Discovery Workshop.
10. Case-Study Highlights
- RouteMate — chose Flutter for its map-heavy UI; 27 % faster scrolling vs RN POC.
- SEQ Christmas Lights — started on native, migrated to Flutter, tickets: –18 % crashes (see case study).
11. Conclusion & Next Steps
Pick Flutter if you need buttery-smooth custom graphics, on-device AI, or desktop apps down the road. Pick React Native if your team is heavy on JS/TypeScript, you want a “feels-native” UI out of the box, or your web & mobile code need to share a component library.
Still unsure? Book a 1-hour architecture clinic, or jump straight to the Plans & Pricing section to see how we deliver greenfield builds and migrations under fixed monthly packages.
